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2021 Market Prediction

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WarPig View Drop Down
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    Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 10:01am
Interesting piece from USA Today that appears to shift from what Yellen is saying.  I think we get at least two more rounds of stimulus this year.  The 1.9 that has already cleared the house and another one later in the year.  Smaller though since it will probably need more votes.


Where do you think the market goes for the rest of the year?  Ron14 has told me no matter how wild your prediction he has no plans to hold it over your head.

S&P 500 ends up 5% this year.  <- Bank it!


Edited by WarPig - Feb/23/2021 at 10:03am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wet_Blanket Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 10:04am
-20%
September 23, 2020

Moraen: Book it. Trump wins by a huge margin.
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Conrad Dobler View Drop Down
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+ 23%
What if the forum was limited to FAs only?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cali123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 10:19am
1) I think we go strong into the summer - especially in the sectors that got hid the hardest last year (sorry Tech).

2) Then the Fed starts talking about taking their foot off the gas

3) ???

4) Don't Profit

--The question is, will the market pullback enough that the Fed can't take their foot off the gas.
It's just something about your face. I wanna punch you right in the suck hole! POW!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote luvindy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 10:44am
I think the Goldmans of the world were saying +7% in December/January. That seems about right, which means it's nowhere close to right.


8/31/12,Sportsfreak:
"If Barak wins this election, or appears to be clearly winning, we are all fucked. Market will tank big time."
Dow 13,090 S&P 1406
5/23/13 UC:Dow 20k before 20% crrectn Dow 15,
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S&P +12% for the year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sportsfreak Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 10:50am
This is an exercise in futility. 

Oh wait.....let me check my toolbox
WHO IS LEADING OUR COUNTRY
#DRAINTHESWAMP
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+14%.

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+15% from the beginning of year
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chips Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 11:34am
-3%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote helado Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/23/2021 at 12:43pm
Don't care. 
My posts are for abrasive entertainment only. Nothing posted is investment, legal, tax or any type of advice, nor is anything mentioned true or even based on real events. Posts are complete fiction.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote eggward Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 8:10am
First half of the year will be better than the second half.  "Sell in May & go away."
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20%+... eventually people get back to work. Fed has no other quivers but to keep their foot on the gas. Market doing well... hoping for the economy to catch up. 

Inflation has to kick in which pushes the market higher. Rich get richer and the poors get poorer. 
โ€œHe gonna put yaโ€™ll back in chains!โ€

-the guy who actually put them back in chains with the 1994 Crime Bill ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WarPig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 8:48am
I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Moraen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 8:52am
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.

Only thing that costs me more right now is real estate (and vehicles I suppose - but I don't have a need to buy one any time soon).

TVs are still cheap as hell. Grocery bill is still low. Wine is still cheap.

What are you buying that is so expensive that would be the result of inflationary pressure?


I come in peace. I didnโ€™t bring artillery. But Iโ€™m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, Iโ€™ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 8:57am
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.

Only thing that costs me more right now is real estate (and vehicles I suppose - but I don't have a need to buy one any time soon).

TVs are still cheap as hell. Grocery bill is still low. Wine is still cheap.

What are you buying that is so expensive that would be the result of inflationary pressure?



Oil products. If it persists, this will raise the price of nearly all products, starting with food. And think about the amount of stuff that is being purchased online and shipped...transportation costs.

Interest rates. Same thing. Not sure if this trend will persist. 
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18
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WarPig View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WarPig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 9:01am
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.

Only thing that costs me more right now is real estate (and vehicles I suppose - but I don't have a need to buy one any time soon).

TVs are still cheap as hell. Grocery bill is still low. Wine is still cheap.

What are you buying that is so expensive that would be the result of inflationary pressure?



Oil products. If it persists, this will raise the price of nearly all products, starting with food. And think about the amount of stuff that is being purchased online and shipped...transportation costs.

Interest rates. Same thing. Not sure if this trend will persist. 

Real Estate, Lumber, Oil Products, Netflix
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote luvindy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 9:01am
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.

Only thing that costs me more right now is real estate (and vehicles I suppose - but I don't have a need to buy one any time soon).

TVs are still cheap as hell. Grocery bill is still low. Wine is still cheap.

What are you buying that is so expensive that would be the result of inflationary pressure?



I am a member of several wine clubs (all California) and find it interesting that in spite of all of the shit hitting the fan, the prices on each bottle have stayed exactly the same for at least four years now. 
8/31/12,Sportsfreak:
"If Barak wins this election, or appears to be clearly winning, we are all fucked. Market will tank big time."
Dow 13,090 S&P 1406
5/23/13 UC:Dow 20k before 20% crrectn Dow 15,
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wiredup Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 9:14am
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

I think inflation is here.  I'm not sure what #s the fed looks at but everything I'm buying costs more.

Only thing that costs me more right now is real estate (and vehicles I suppose - but I don't have a need to buy one any time soon).

TVs are still cheap as hell. Grocery bill is still low. Wine is still cheap.

What are you buying that is so expensive that would be the result of inflationary pressure?



anecdotal... but Grocery Bills donโ€™t seem to have gone down around me or my clients... 


โ€œHe gonna put yaโ€™ll back in chains!โ€

-the guy who actually put them back in chains with the 1994 Crime Bill ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LA Broker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb/25/2021 at 9:25am
Freight, copper, labor costs for anything construction related. Inflation is here, itโ€™s just showing up in certain areas, but in a big way.
โ€œIf you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.โ€
-Winston Churchill
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