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Inflation

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Topic: Inflation
Posted By: WarPig
Subject: Inflation
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 12:54pm
How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

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Call me Ike



Replies:
Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 1:37pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

What would you suggest?


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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 1:49pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 1:57pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 1:58pm
Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

What would you suggest?

Stop buying assets and raise rates for starters.


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 1:59pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

Yup, until it comes time to calc SS COLA.  "Inflation? Where?" 


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 2:04pm
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

Yup, until it comes time to calc SS COLA.  "Inflation? Where?" 

Always this.


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 3:19pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

Not sure what the “reports” will show, but 100% agree


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 4:58pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 5:11pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

I agree with piggy, inflation is here and will be sustained. 


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 5:22pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 5:45pm
Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?

It would be inflation but not the year over year where the fed would tighten quickly to get ahead of. 
If IA is right, and we get a 6% or so reading this year and go back to 1.5-2% in 2022, the fed would likely take their time and the market would trend higher. 


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 6:34pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

I know that's what Powell is telling us as he walks a razors edge. He's lying. The fed knows inflation is on the march but they are concerned about the job market when they turn the dial up on rates.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don't. Couple that with higher taxes and he's in a tight spot.




-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 6:39pm
Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?

It would be inflation but not the year over year where the fed would tighten quickly to get ahead of. 
If IA is right, and we get a 6% or so reading this year and go back to 1.5-2% in 2022, the fed would likely take their time and the market would trend higher. 

Right, maybe that happens. I hope so. 

Doubtful though with inflated asset prices. Biden has got to stop spending money (he won't) and the fed will need to stop buying assets (they won't) and raise rates.

Otherwise ... To the moon! 🚀🚀🚀


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 8:05pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?

It would be inflation but not the year over year where the fed would tighten quickly to get ahead of. 
If IA is right, and we get a 6% or so reading this year and go back to 1.5-2% in 2022, the fed would likely take their time and the market would trend higher. 

Right, maybe that happens. I hope so. 

Doubtful though with inflated asset prices. Biden has got to stop spending money (he won't) and the fed will need to stop buying assets (they won't) and raise rates.

Otherwise ... To the moon! 🚀🚀🚀

We shall see who is right on this. My money is on me. 

Quoted for posterity. 

We will see inflation this year, but not persistent year by year inflation. 





Posted By: indysomeday
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 9:09pm
I'm with IAL. Higher inflation this year, but not persistent. Reading"The Deficit Myth" recently probably skews my thinking though


Posted By: indysomeday
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 9:11pm
The Fed cares about wage inflation, not asset inflation. The enhanced unemployment benefits are driving wage inflation, which will lead to higher numbers this year, but will eventually fade. My 2 cents anyway


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by indysomeday indysomeday wrote:

The Fed cares about wage inflation, not asset inflation. The enhanced unemployment benefits are driving wage inflation, which will lead to higher numbers this year, but will eventually fade. My 2 cents anyway

Once the government stimulus ends we won’t have much wage inflation. 


Posted By: indysomeday
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 9:18pm
Agreed


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 9:53pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?

It would be inflation but not the year over year where the fed would tighten quickly to get ahead of. 
If IA is right, and we get a 6% or so reading this year and go back to 1.5-2% in 2022, the fed would likely take their time and the market would trend higher. 

Right, maybe that happens. I hope so. 

Doubtful though with inflated asset prices. Biden has got to stop spending money (he won't) and the fed will need to stop buying assets (they won't) and raise rates.

Otherwise ... To the moon! 🚀🚀🚀

We shall see who is right on this. My money is on me. 

Quoted for posterity. 

We will see inflation this year, but not persistent year by year inflation. 




I like how we've redefined inflation. Like it doesn't count now because it's only "one time" and we shouldn't take action until we see it for a few years.


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/01/2021 at 10:18pm
Add in the prediction of inflation this year quoted for posterity LOL

I predict that Tampa Bay will win last years Super Bowl and the market will get off to a good start in 2021


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 8:44am
There's also the strong possibility we get deflation at some point in the near  future on things like lumber, housing, etc.

Housing deflated after the runnup to 2008.

But there is definitely inflation on a lot of items. And if restaurants and retail continue to face hiring challenges, we will get wage inflation there, too. And this will lead to price inflation on those goods and services.

We have had several restaurants close or delay seasonal opening this year because they can't find enough help. We have never had that problem here. And business is fucking humming.

I was with some friends last night and one is a waitress at a high end restaurant here in town, and she said they are making money hand over fist. She's averaging $500 /night in tips on 6 tables a night.

We are in fucking crazy times right now. It will eventually revert, but probably not for a while.

Also keep in mind the stock market wealth that has made people flush. I don't see that hitting a wall with the bond market the way it is.

Although a 3rd (4th?) Covid wave could fuck things up in the U.S.


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 11:31am
The same people claiming housing is a bubble are the same ones saying we will have sustained inflation. Some of you should have taken more Econ classes in college. 


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 11:56am
"Sustained Inflation" 

As other price increases don't count. LOL

You guys should have taken an econ class in college.


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 11:59am
Inflation is total cost of living.  In many cases, overall cost of living has gone down (me included).

-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 1:02pm
Originally posted by Hacksaw Hacksaw wrote:

The same people claiming housing is a bubble are the same ones saying we will have sustained inflation. Some of you should have taken more Econ classes in college. 

I'm not "claiming" anything. Just making observations.

There's also quite a bit of regionality to prices right now, especially real estate. 


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 2:58pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

"Sustained Inflation" 

As other price increases don't count. LOL

You guys should have taken an econ class in college.

In economics, inflation is a general rise in the price level of an economy over a period of time.


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 3:13pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

"Sustained Inflation" 

As other price increases don't count. LOL

You guys should have taken an econ class in college.

In economics, inflation is a general rise in the price level of an economy over a period of time.

Exactly


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: Iamlegend
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 6:07pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

"Sustained Inflation" 

As other price increases don't count. LOL

You guys should have taken an econ class in college.

In economics, inflation is a general rise in the price level of an economy over a period of time.

Exactly

You are forgetting what the FED has said. They anticipate inflation as a one time bump up, but don’t expect persistent inflation. So the time period they are not expecting is year to year over more than one year. 


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 6:21pm
All the fancy talk aside, if these prices stay up, we have inflation.  If it deflates as B said, we don’t.  

By these silly definitions, we could have prices soar by 50% and stay there and some of you would argue that it’s not inflation, because it didn’t move up from 50% the following year 


Posted By: luvindy
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 6:50pm
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

Yup, until it comes time to calc SS COLA.  "Inflation? Where?" 

Keep in mind during the Obama era SSI moved to "chain inflation", which is by definition intended to measure how consumer behavior adapts to inflation rather than looking at the gross inflation figure. 

I'm not defending or attacking it, but it's just a fact that this was a way to essentially reduce SSI spending.


-------------
8/31/12,Sportsfreak:
"If Barak wins this election, or appears to be clearly winning, we are all fucked. Market will tank big time."
Dow 13,090 S&P 1406
5/23/13 UC:Dow 20k before 20% crrectn Dow 15,


Posted By: luvindy
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 6:52pm
Question...is inflation bad? It does reduce the burden of the federal debt over time, which is the source of the phrase "inflate your way out of the debt." 

Incidentally regarding the debt and deficit, I am more and more subscribing to the notion of looking at household wealth as a measure of "gross value" as compared to the debt balance. Much of this deficit spending has increased household net worth.


-------------
8/31/12,Sportsfreak:
"If Barak wins this election, or appears to be clearly winning, we are all fucked. Market will tank big time."
Dow 13,090 S&P 1406
5/23/13 UC:Dow 20k before 20% crrectn Dow 15,


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 8:00pm
Originally posted by luvindy luvindy wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

Yup, until it comes time to calc SS COLA.  "Inflation? Where?" 

Keep in mind during the Obama era SSI moved to "chain inflation", which is by definition intended to measure how consumer behavior adapts to inflation rather than looking at the gross inflation figure. 

I'm not defending or attacking it, but it's just a fact that this was a way to essentially reduce SSI spending.

Yeah, that's true. I think this is part of why "inflation" gets distorted, because different entities measure eit differently. 


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 9:10pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

What would you suggest?

Stop buying assets and raise rates for starters.

I’d prefer to wait for that until the economy is back on track. 


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/02/2021 at 9:13pm
Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Iamlegend Iamlegend wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

How long before the fed gets it's head out of it's ass and takes action on inflation? 

Probably never for several trillion reasons. 
Also, we won’t have inflation. Do you know why I think that?
Because everyone is convinced of two things it seems. 
1. Big inflation is coming. 
2. Interest rates will spike. 

Neither will happen IMO. 

We are demographically challenged. 

We have inflation now.

We don’t have persistent inflation. A one time spike in prices isn’t inflation. A spike upon a spike is the inflation the Fed will try to avoid. 

So dumb question and I’m not being a smartass.  If a new floor is found and there is no new spike, it’s not inflation?

It would be inflation but not the year over year where the fed would tighten quickly to get ahead of. 
If IA is right, and we get a 6% or so reading this year and go back to 1.5-2% in 2022, the fed would likely take their time and the market would trend higher. 

Right, maybe that happens. I hope so. 

Doubtful though with inflated asset prices. Biden has got to stop spending money (he won't) and the fed will need to stop buying assets (they won't) and raise rates.

Otherwise ... To the moon! 🚀🚀🚀

We shall see who is right on this. My money is on me. 

Quoted for posterity. 

We will see inflation this year, but not persistent year by year inflation. 




Agreed.


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 6:51am
Originally posted by luvindy luvindy wrote:

Question...is inflation bad? It does reduce the burden of the federal debt over time, which is the source of the phrase "inflate your way out of the debt." 

Incidentally regarding the debt and deficit, I am more and more subscribing to the notion of looking at household wealth as a measure of "gross value" as compared to the debt balance. Much of this deficit spending has increased household net worth.

No. In fact, you need a little bit of inflation to increase wages. "everything in moderation..."

The obsession with inflation is a bit irritating. We've had one of the lowest periods of inflation ever in the last 10 years. Moving prices up a bit doesn't hurt if people are employed, productivity has increased and wages increase.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: PEACH_cm
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 7:31am
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by luvindy luvindy wrote:

Question...is inflation bad? It does reduce the burden of the federal debt over time, which is the source of the phrase "inflate your way out of the debt." 

Incidentally regarding the debt and deficit, I am more and more subscribing to the notion of looking at household wealth as a measure of "gross value" as compared to the debt balance. Much of this deficit spending has increased household net worth.

No. In fact, you need a little bit of inflation to increase wages. "everything in moderation..."

The obsession with inflation is a bit irritating. We've had one of the lowest periods of inflation ever in the last 10 years. Moving prices up a bit doesn't hurt if people are employed, productivity has increased and wages increase.
I agree with this but would add that if we are in fact in an inflationary step up period (sustainable) then raising taxes into that environment is dangerous. 


Posted By: indysomeday
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 7:44am
How so peach? Potential for stagflation? 


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 8:31am
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

"Sustained Inflation" 

As other price increases don't count. LOL

You guys should have taken an econ class in college.

So you’re saying gas goes up $.20 the economy has inflation. A month later, it’s down $.20, so then it has deflation?

Or do you wait/look for gas prices to rise over a period of time with no appearance they will be dropping soon?

That’s where we are. Prices will rise because of supply chain problems that will ripple through the economy causing inflation. The view is that once that is balanced back out, we will be return to normal pricing and growth. 

Again, you can’t have a housing bubble if you also have high inflation. 


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 8:34am
Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

All the fancy talk aside, if these prices stay up, we have inflation.  If it deflates as B said, we don’t.  

By these silly definitions, we could have prices soar by 50% and stay there and some of you would argue that it’s not inflation, because it didn’t move up from 50% the following year 

Correct. That’s called inflation. When prices rise and stay elevated. No one is saying prices won’t rise. It is what happens once production and supply chain is back to normal levels. 

And if tax increases choke off growth as some say it will, then you have even less to worry about. 


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 8:39am
Originally posted by luvindy luvindy wrote:

Question...is inflation bad? It does reduce the burden of the federal debt over time, which is the source of the phrase "inflate your way out of the debt." 

Incidentally regarding the debt and deficit, I am more and more subscribing to the notion of looking at household wealth as a measure of "gross value" as compared to the debt balance. Much of this deficit spending has increased household net worth.

Inflation is good for the “haves” and horrible for the “have-nots”. 2-3% annually is typically viewed as a healthy rate of inflation. 


Posted By: PEACH_cm
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 9:04am
Originally posted by indysomeday indysomeday wrote:

How so peach? Potential for stagflation? 
think about it---- they will be tightening the money supply, with an elevated cost of living, and reducing after tax income it is a recipe for a government induced recession. 


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 9:25am
“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.


Posted By: indysomeday
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 9:39am
I don't think anyone is arguing there's not inflation occurring right now. What we're saying (or at least me) is that whatever inflation rate we see right now is not necessarily the same rate we'll see next year and into the future. The enhanced unemployment benefits and fucked up supply chains are causing businesses to pay more for labor and whatnot right now, but the enhanced unemployment won't last forever and the supply chain issues will be cleared up eventually too right? So if we have 5-7% inflation this year for example, that doesn't mean we're going to have 5-7% next year and the year after and so on. 


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 9:45am
Originally posted by PEACH_cm PEACH_cm wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by luvindy luvindy wrote:

Question...is inflation bad? It does reduce the burden of the federal debt over time, which is the source of the phrase "inflate your way out of the debt." 

Incidentally regarding the debt and deficit, I am more and more subscribing to the notion of looking at household wealth as a measure of "gross value" as compared to the debt balance. Much of this deficit spending has increased household net worth.

No. In fact, you need a little bit of inflation to increase wages. "everything in moderation..."

The obsession with inflation is a bit irritating. We've had one of the lowest periods of inflation ever in the last 10 years. Moving prices up a bit doesn't hurt if people are employed, productivity has increased and wages increase.
I agree with this but would add that if we are in fact in an inflationary step up period (sustainable) then raising taxes into that environment is dangerous

I think this probably depends upon how much and where targeted. 


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 12:42pm
Originally posted by indysomeday indysomeday wrote:

I don't think anyone is arguing there's not inflation occurring right now. What we're saying (or at least me) is that whatever inflation rate we see right now is not necessarily the same rate we'll see next year and into the future. The enhanced unemployment benefits and fucked up supply chains are causing businesses to pay more for labor and whatnot right now, but the enhanced unemployment won't last forever and the supply chain issues will be cleared up eventually too right? So if we have 5-7% inflation this year for example, that doesn't mean we're going to have 5-7% next year and the year after and so on. 

Glad someone gets it.

War believes if something is happening right now, that means it will continue into perpetuity. EVERYONE is saying there is inflation right now. That's because there's a huge disconnect between supply (low because of pandemic) and demand (high because people see the end of the tunnel).  Those two should balance back out the more we continue to recover.

Now the things is, that we could very easily get sustained inflation.  And the Fed is not known for getting their targets right - they typically overshoot both ways.  Just that as of right now, inflation more than a year out does not seem likely.


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 12:55pm
Originally posted by Hacksaw Hacksaw wrote:

Originally posted by indysomeday indysomeday wrote:

I don't think anyone is arguing there's not inflation occurring right now. What we're saying (or at least me) is that whatever inflation rate we see right now is not necessarily the same rate we'll see next year and into the future. The enhanced unemployment benefits and fucked up supply chains are causing businesses to pay more for labor and whatnot right now, but the enhanced unemployment won't last forever and the supply chain issues will be cleared up eventually too right? So if we have 5-7% inflation this year for example, that doesn't mean we're going to have 5-7% next year and the year after and so on. 

Glad someone gets it.

War believes if something is happening right now, that means it will continue into perpetuity. EVERYONE is saying there is inflation right now. That's because there's a huge disconnect between supply (low because of pandemic) and demand (high because people see the end of the tunnel).  Those two should balance back out the more we continue to recover.

Now the things is, that we could very easily get sustained inflation.  And the Fed is not known for getting their targets right - they typically overshoot both ways.  Just that as of right now, inflation more than a year out does not seem likely.

We all get it.  Anyone that disagrees with his holiness, Hacksaw, is just too dumb to understand.

I like how we measure inflation differently now.  Like it doesn't count unless it fits into your newly developed timeline.  As if inflation has moved at 2% forever.  As if there have never been ups and downs.  *yawn*


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 2:18pm
We all know lumber prices will not continue to go up 400% per year, but inflation can be hard to tame once it gets going. That’s where I agree with piggy. 
I think we could see 4% a year inflation for awhile after this years 6% plus


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.

Increases from when and caused by what? If we’re talking about gas prices returning to near where they were February 2020 or price hikes due to shortages resulting production shortfalls during the pandemic I don’t think that’s consequential. That’s like looking back at toilet paper shortages of April 2020 and assuming  the situation won’t change.

If it’s more than that I’ll be concerned, but I won’t stop pretending the Fed doesn’t have a better handle on the info involved than me, almost invisible asset manager (to the broad economy).


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 2:42pm
Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

We all know lumber prices will not continue to go up 400% per year, but inflation can be hard to tame once it gets going. That’s where I agree with piggy. 
I think we could see 4% a year inflation for awhile after this years 6% plus

But here's the interesting thing about lumber. The longer prices stay insanely inflated, the more those costs get embedded into our economy. If you're in the process of building homes or doing major renovations, and you are looking at adding 200% to your raw material costs, that has to get passed on to the consumer. It's not like food that's a consumable. That $300K new home now becomes maybe a $325K or $350K home (I have no idea what the lumber component is in the cost of a house). So those home prices now become fixed in time. And then it creates comps for future sales. 

So, part of me wonders if this will cause housing prices to persist much longer than it did in the 2004-2007 bubble period. In other words, rather than explode like 2008/2009, it may just fizzle eventually, with prices remaining relatively constant.  

There's not a lot of modern-day precedent for what we are experiencing in many parts of the economy. 


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 2:47pm
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

We all know lumber prices will not continue to go up 400% per year, but inflation can be hard to tame once it gets going. That’s where I agree with piggy. 
I think we could see 4% a year inflation for awhile after this years 6% plus

But here's the interesting thing about lumber. The longer prices stay insanely inflated, the more those costs get embedded into our economy. If you're in the process of building homes or doing major renovations, and you are looking at adding 200% to your raw material costs, that has to get passed on to the consumer. It's not like food that's a consumable. That $300K new home now becomes maybe a $325K or $350K home (I have no idea what the lumber component is in the cost of a house). So those home prices now become fixed in time. And then it creates comps for future sales. 

So, part of me wonders if this will cause housing prices to persist much longer than it did in the 2004-2007 bubble period. In other words, rather than explode like 2008/2009, it may just fizzle eventually, with prices remaining relatively constant.  

There's not a lot of modern-day precedent for what we are experiencing in many parts of the economy. 

Yep. Pretty sure LA is going to agree with all of that 


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 4:02pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Hacksaw Hacksaw wrote:

Originally posted by indysomeday indysomeday wrote:

I don't think anyone is arguing there's not inflation occurring right now. What we're saying (or at least me) is that whatever inflation rate we see right now is not necessarily the same rate we'll see next year and into the future. The enhanced unemployment benefits and fucked up supply chains are causing businesses to pay more for labor and whatnot right now, but the enhanced unemployment won't last forever and the supply chain issues will be cleared up eventually too right? So if we have 5-7% inflation this year for example, that doesn't mean we're going to have 5-7% next year and the year after and so on. 

Glad someone gets it.

War believes if something is happening right now, that means it will continue into perpetuity. EVERYONE is saying there is inflation right now. That's because there's a huge disconnect between supply (low because of pandemic) and demand (high because people see the end of the tunnel).  Those two should balance back out the more we continue to recover.

Now the things is, that we could very easily get sustained inflation.  And the Fed is not known for getting their targets right - they typically overshoot both ways.  Just that as of right now, inflation more than a year out does not seem likely.

We all get it.  Anyone that disagrees with his holiness, Hacksaw, is just too dumb to understand.

I like how we measure inflation differently now.  Like it doesn't count unless it fits into your newly developed timeline.  As if inflation has moved at 2% forever.  As if there have never been ups and downs.  *yawn*

Your initial post was about the Fed doing something about the current rate of inflation. What would you suggest they do without choking off growth in 2022/23? 

Also you make comments that literally contradict each other - housing is a bubble; inflation will continue. 


Posted By: Hacksaw
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

We all know lumber prices will not continue to go up 400% per year, but inflation can be hard to tame once it gets going. That’s where I agree with piggy. 
I think we could see 4% a year inflation for awhile after this years 6% plus

But here's the interesting thing about lumber. The longer prices stay insanely inflated, the more those costs get embedded into our economy. If you're in the process of building homes or doing major renovations, and you are looking at adding 200% to your raw material costs, that has to get passed on to the consumer. It's not like food that's a consumable. That $300K new home now becomes maybe a $325K or $350K home (I have no idea what the lumber component is in the cost of a house). So those home prices now become fixed in time. And then it creates comps for future sales. 

So, part of me wonders if this will cause housing prices to persist much longer than it did in the 2004-2007 bubble period. In other words, rather than explode like 2008/2009, it may just fizzle eventually, with prices remaining relatively constant.  

There's not a lot of modern-day precedent for what we are experiencing in many parts of the economy. 

Lumber supply is WAY down. It never recovered from 08/09. Throw into the tariffs we placed on Canadian lumber (that since have been lightened) and you have a supply issue. 

Free-market economists would believe that the free market would then correct this by filling the supply side to take advantage of elevated prices. I can’t tell you this far it has not transitioned down to the timber owners. 

Housing prices persist because of the lack of supply of housing to keep pace with household growth. It has been below formation for years, but there’s not enough infrastructure in place to be able to just accelerate it easily. 


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 4:44pm
Originally posted by Hacksaw Hacksaw wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

We all know lumber prices will not continue to go up 400% per year, but inflation can be hard to tame once it gets going. That’s where I agree with piggy. 
I think we could see 4% a year inflation for awhile after this years 6% plus

But here's the interesting thing about lumber. The longer prices stay insanely inflated, the more those costs get embedded into our economy. If you're in the process of building homes or doing major renovations, and you are looking at adding 200% to your raw material costs, that has to get passed on to the consumer. It's not like food that's a consumable. That $300K new home now becomes maybe a $325K or $350K home (I have no idea what the lumber component is in the cost of a house). So those home prices now become fixed in time. And then it creates comps for future sales. 

So, part of me wonders if this will cause housing prices to persist much longer than it did in the 2004-2007 bubble period. In other words, rather than explode like 2008/2009, it may just fizzle eventually, with prices remaining relatively constant.  

There's not a lot of modern-day precedent for what we are experiencing in many parts of the economy. 

Lumber supply is WAY down. It never recovered from 08/09. Throw into the tariffs we placed on Canadian lumber (that since have been lightened) and you have a supply issue. 

Free-market economists would believe that the free market would then correct this by filling the supply side to take advantage of elevated prices. I can’t tell you this far it has not transitioned down to the timber owners. 

Housing prices persist because of the lack of supply of housing to keep pace with household growth. It has been below formation for years, but there’s not enough infrastructure in place to be able to just accelerate it easily. 

Lumber will be interesting to watch. I do agree with B24 that some of the hikes will be permanent. We are 4 million homes and counting behind what we need as a country, so if we play catch up that will be a demand strain on lumber for years.

Procter and Gamble raised prices recently 10%, those hikes are permanent. Though I don’t expect continued double digit price increase, the backdrop of inflation (stimulus, fed) still leads me to believe not all the money printing has been reflected in inflation and we will see higher 4% on top of this years for several years moving forward. I also believe this is what the fed wants for national debt purposes and why they are allowing it to happen and down playing it.


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/03/2021 at 5:37pm
Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.

Increases from when and caused by what? If we’re talking about gas prices returning to near where they were February 2020 or price hikes due to shortages resulting production shortfalls during the pandemic I don’t think that’s consequential. That’s like looking back at toilet paper shortages of April 2020 and assuming  the situation won’t change.

If it’s more than that I’ll be concerned, but I won’t stop pretending the Fed doesn’t have a better handle on the info involved than me, almost invisible asset manager (to the broad economy).

Give Warren a call and discuss. I'm sure if you bring in Hacksaw on this he'll schedule a conference call with you guys.


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 12:58pm
Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 1:04pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.



-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: B24
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 1:06pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.


-------------
"If Bellicheat pulls that rabbit out of his a$$ with this kid at quarterback, I'll personally kiss his ring." - Sporsfreak, 09/20/16

"Jags/Vikes Super Bowl. Write it down" - Sportsfreak 01/19/18


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 1:07pm
Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:01pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.

I read it. She is trying to have her cake and eat it too. 

We will probably have to raise rates... But there is no inflation. Why raise rates then?  Just for the fun of it?


-------------
Call me Ike


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:07pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.

I read it. She is trying to have her cake and eat it too. 

We will probably have to raise rates... But there is no inflation. Why raise rates then?  Just for the fun of it?

Some times you raise rates to prevent inflation. It's a tool to cool a superheated economy.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:13pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.

I read it. She is trying to have her cake and eat it too. 

We will probably have to raise rates... But there is no inflation. Why raise rates then?  Just for the fun of it?

Some times you raise rates to prevent inflation. It's a tool to cool a superheated economy.

Or you raise rates to STOP inflation Wink

These politicians are trying to b24 the answer.  


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:14pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.

Increases from when and caused by what? If we’re talking about gas prices returning to near where they were February 2020 or price hikes due to shortages resulting production shortfalls during the pandemic I don’t think that’s consequential. That’s like looking back at toilet paper shortages of April 2020 and assuming  the situation won’t change.

If it’s more than that I’ll be concerned, but I won’t stop pretending the Fed doesn’t have a better handle on the info involved than me, almost invisible asset manager (to the broad economy).

Give Warren a call and discuss. I'm sure if you bring in Hacksaw on this he'll schedule a conference call with you guys.

If I had time with Warren I’d want to know how to get those great deals no one else can get that pad his resume so well. 


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:17pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.

I read it. She is trying to have her cake and eat it too. 

We will probably have to raise rates... But there is no inflation. Why raise rates then?  Just for the fun of it?

Some times you raise rates to prevent inflation. It's a tool to cool a superheated economy.

Or you raise rates to STOP inflation Wink

These politicians are trying to b24 the answer.  

I see no reason to clamp down the economy just as we come out of a pandemic just because consumption is returning to normal and some areas of the economy still have pandemic related production shortfalls. If it turns out the price hikes continue after the markets and economy have regained equilibrium the Fed has tools for it. Patience, Grasshopper.


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:18pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by B24 B24 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Doesn't Yellen know we don't have inflation and these are one time price increases?  She is so dumb.

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/04/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-rates-may-have-to-rise-somewhat-to-keep-economy-from-overheating.html

Did you read the article at all:

Inflation concerns have arisen due to all the spending and the rapid growth, but Fed officials have said that after a brief rise this year, price pressures are likely to ebb.

Yellen has said she is largely not concerned about inflation becoming a problem, though she has added that there are tools to address it should that happen. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that the primary tool to control inflation is through higher interest rates.


Yeah, but she's not an AdvisorHead.

It's unlike WarPig to post something like that without reading it. That's a wiredup move.

I read it. She is trying to have her cake and eat it too. 

We will probably have to raise rates... But there is no inflation. Why raise rates then?  Just for the fun of it?

Some times you raise rates to prevent inflation. It's a tool to cool a superheated economy.

Or you raise rates to STOP inflation Wink

These politicians are trying to b24 the answer.  

Since when? The Fed's policy has never been to stop inflation. It's more to prevent runaway inflation. Keep it at reasonable levels that will allow wage growth, but not at levels where other prices front-run wages.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.

Increases from when and caused by what? If we’re talking about gas prices returning to near where they were February 2020 or price hikes due to shortages resulting production shortfalls during the pandemic I don’t think that’s consequential. That’s like looking back at toilet paper shortages of April 2020 and assuming  the situation won’t change.

If it’s more than that I’ll be concerned, but I won’t stop pretending the Fed doesn’t have a better handle on the info involved than me, almost invisible asset manager (to the broad economy).

Give Warren a call and discuss. I'm sure if you bring in Hacksaw on this he'll schedule a conference call with you guys.

If I had time with Warren I’d want to know how to get those great deals no one else can get that pad his resume so well. 

Me too.  His best days are a decade behind him though.  He's too chicken to make deals now. Hasn't adjusted to company valuations.  I always wonder what happens when he's no longer here, does the new guy put that cash to work?


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:22pm
Here's the CPI:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USM657N" rel="nofollow - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USM657N

Up until Feb 21 (as far as it goes right now) it doesn't look materially different than previous months.

Looks like a normal oscillating time series.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/04/2021 at 2:24pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” the Berkshire chairman and CEO said at the conglomerate’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

Can one of you guys please call Warren and let him know it's not inflation.  It's just a price increase.

Increases from when and caused by what? If we’re talking about gas prices returning to near where they were February 2020 or price hikes due to shortages resulting production shortfalls during the pandemic I don’t think that’s consequential. That’s like looking back at toilet paper shortages of April 2020 and assuming  the situation won’t change.

If it’s more than that I’ll be concerned, but I won’t stop pretending the Fed doesn’t have a better handle on the info involved than me, almost invisible asset manager (to the broad economy).

Give Warren a call and discuss. I'm sure if you bring in Hacksaw on this he'll schedule a conference call with you guys.

If I had time with Warren I’d want to know how to get those great deals no one else can get that pad his resume so well. 

Me too.  His best days are a decade behind him though.  He's too chicken to make deals now. Hasn't adjusted to company valuations.  I always wonder what happens when he's no longer here, does the new guy put that cash to work?

I think there will be tons of pressure for him/her to do that since sitting on cash serves no one and the new guy won’t be able to deflect all questions about things like that with a wave of the hand and a “I’ve been doing this since Christ was a Corporal” comment.


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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 9:16am
CPI up 0.8% in April.

YOY up 4.2% unadjusted.

Energy and Used Cars and Trucks seem to be the worst offenders.






-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: cali123
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 9:20am
I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.



-------------
It's just something about your face. I wanna punch you right in the suck hole! POW!


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 9:20am
Just to add. Keep in mind the YOY number is April 2020 to April 2021. Due to the shutdown, we had a marked decrease in inflation, so it would be expected to be higher than normal.

-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 9:21am
Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 9:28am
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.


-------------
California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 1:30pm
Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:16pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:22pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

When the pipeline reopens prices will settle.

That said I took advantage of the inflation of used cars to sell my daily driver and then took advantage of silly low rates to buy a CPO just off lease. 


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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Your right. I was trying to refer to core inflation (PCE) that the fed watches. 


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:31pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

Temporary supply disruptions are not exactly "inflation".


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:34pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

Temporary supply disruptions are not exactly "inflation".

Do increased prices show as inflation on your report? Or is there an asterisk next to those for all these temporary supply disruptions you guys keep pointing to?


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 3:38pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

Temporary supply disruptions are not exactly "inflation".

Do increased prices show as inflation on your report? Or is there an asterisk next to those for all these temporary supply disruptions you guys keep pointing to?

Well, nothing shows up in the report TODAY, because it was for April.  So we would have to wait for May. My guess is that it won't stay negative, but then it wasn't expected to anyway.

We expected the change to CPI to be high from April last year to April this year. 


-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

Temporary supply disruptions are not exactly "inflation".

Do increased prices show as inflation on your report? Or is there an asterisk next to those for all these temporary supply disruptions you guys keep pointing to?

No, no asterisk. That's why people take the time to read the number in context, just as we do with the balance sheet of a company with, say, a one time charge that makes for a weak bottom-line.


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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Sportsfreak
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 4:22pm
Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

Very temporary


-------------
WHO IS LEADING OUR COUNTRY
#DRAINTHESWAMP


Posted By: LA Broker
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 4:58pm
Originally posted by Sportsfreak Sportsfreak wrote:

Originally posted by WarPig WarPig wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by LA Broker LA Broker wrote:

Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by cali123 cali123 wrote:

I am starting to think the Fed is possibly playing a very dangerous game.

There is no way we can service our debt, so instead, they are (total speculation on my part) going to try to let inflation run hot for a few years to make servicing the debt more manageable.

Of course, we know this will fail spectacularly and we will all be fuc$ed.


The inflation report is not as bad as it looks in context. 

That’s what the bond market is saying right now.

We’ll see. So the CPI is running a bit hot, but not out of whack, however it excludes the majority of the areas we are seeing very significant inflation. Add housing prices, food, energy and materials and the number would be much higher.
I tend to believe the conspiracy theory that the fed wants to create inflation to inflate some of the debt away. The “new fed” has too many mandates on their plate. Not only do they want unemployment and inflation in check, but now they want economic equity and climate change. How do you navigate that?

Food and energy are included. And energy was actually negative.

Not anymore.

I still remember when a gallon of milk cost a nickel. 


-------------
“If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.”
-Winston Churchill


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 5:34pm
Colonial says they’re back and it will take just a few days to be at 100%.

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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: May/12/2021 at 5:53pm
Originally posted by Conrad Dobler Conrad Dobler wrote:

Colonial says they’re back and it will take just a few days to be at 100%.

Whew. I was getting worried I wasn’t going to be able to drive to work to pay everyone’s taxes LOL


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 12:55pm
Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 12:57pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

I never talked about “runaway” inflation but you’re the last person that should be stirring this pot 😂


Posted By: Conrad Dobler
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 1:15pm
Memory hole time…..

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California state champ, 2021, political division.


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 1:23pm
Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

I never talked about “runaway” inflation but you’re the last person that should be stirring this pot 😂

Why?

Also, why would you think I was talking about you?




-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: Nathan Explosion
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 1:33pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

I've got a contractor coming tomorrow for the kitchen and TV room......i'll let ya know how that goesOuch


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 1:51pm
Originally posted by Nathan Explosion Nathan Explosion wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

I've got a contractor coming tomorrow for the kitchen and TV room......i'll let ya know how that goesOuch

We had a contractor come two weeks ago. It actually ended up being a bit less expensive than the one we had come out six weeks ago.




-------------
I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 1:54pm
This thread should be hidden.


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:12pm
Lol

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I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:18pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Where are the usual suspects talking about runaway inflation?

I never talked about “runaway” inflation but you’re the last person that should be stirring this pot 😂

Why?

Also, why would you think I was talking about you?



It’s the whole runaway/sustained convo 

I think that answers both 


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:21pm
Me - fuck we have 50% inflation this year 

Mo- but what is it next year?

Me - stays up 

Mo- not sustained, who cares?

Me- WTF LOL


Posted By: WarPig
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:25pm
I can't think of anyone here that suggest runaway inflation but damn I have some clients that are convinced.  


Posted By: Moraen
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:31pm
Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Me - fuck we have 50% inflation this year 

Mo- but what is it next year?

Me - stays up 

Mo- not sustained, who cares?

Me- WTF LOL

There is a difference between the rate of inflation and a change to the rate of inflation.


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I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all. - General James Mattis

Fiduciary as Fuck - iMo


Posted By: bc2051
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 2:48pm
Originally posted by Moraen Moraen wrote:

Originally posted by bc2051 bc2051 wrote:

Me - fuck we have 50% inflation this year 

Mo- but what is it next year?

Me - stays up 

Mo- not sustained, who cares?

Me- WTF LOL

There is a difference between the rate of inflation and a change to the rate of inflation.

I know!  But if everything jumps and IT STAYS UP, it still hurts 


Posted By: Nathan Explosion
Date Posted: Aug/11/2021 at 3:04pm
It interesting that the consumer sees it....the manufacturer sees it.....the logistics company sees it......the procurement people see it......but the economic bureaucrat says it's not happening so move along.....sustained or transitory.....it's here. 



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